June 8, 2023
Marin: June 2023 Market Stats
Median home sales prices have been climbing rapidly from mid-winter lows, though remaining well below peak prices hit in spring 2022. The number of new listings coming on the market over the past 12 months was the lowest in over 20 years (and almost certainly much longer): This is commonly ascribed to the "mortgage lock-in" effect. As buyer demand rebounded in 2023, this has contributed to upward pressure on home prices. Sales volume over the period was the lowest since the post-2008 recession. New listing and sales volumes have risen from their nadirs in mid-winter, but remain historically low.
Average days on the market - the speed at which sold listings went into a contract - have plunged in 2023. The percentage of home sales closing over the asking price has rapidly increased, and the average home sale is once again selling above its original asking price. Luxury home sales remain well down from spectacular peaks seen at the height of the pandemic boom but have been rebounding since late 2022. May saw a large jump in luxury sales.
With bank crises, fed actions, inflation readings, and U.S. debt-default fears, interest rates have been volatile in 2023, with significant ups and downs. As of early June, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages are running about a quarter percent below 7% (but rates can change quickly).
The 1st and 4th largest insurers of CA homes, State Farm and Allstate, have announced they will no longer write new policies in the state due to rising claims costs. It is too early to quantify the exact financial, political, and market effects of their actions, or if other insurers will follow suit. Similar issues have come up in other states, such as Florida and Louisiana, and occurred with earthquake insurance in CA in the mid-1990s, leading to the creation of the CA Earthquake Authority.
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