Feature image for Marin: October 2023 Market Stats

October 10, 2023

Marin: October 2023 Market Stats

By Compass

Economic indicators have been challenging since the fall selling season began: Interest rates continued to rise through early October and stock markets generally continued to fall from mid-summer, YTD highs. The country faced yet another threat of a federal government shutdown, which happily didn't occur, but, unbelievably, another such crisis may soon confront us again.

Markets remain volatile and hard to predict, often reacting negatively to positive economic news (such as employment numbers) as they wait for new inflation numbers and try to parse the possible reaction of the Fed. Any definitive impacts on real estate markets of these recent developments, should they continue, won't substantially show up until Q4 data begins to become available, and, of course, volatility also means that indicators can turn around quickly.

In the meantime, the Q3 median house sales price was down about 8.5% from Q3 2022, but we expect the year-over-year price decline to disappear in the coming months. The supply of listings for sale just hit a YTD high - giving buyers more purchase options - though still below this time last year. Year over year, the number of home sales in Q3 was down about 17%, mostly due to the low supply of homes available to buy, though also affected by interest rates. Luxury home sales have dropped from spring peaks, as is a common seasonal trend.

The CA Association of Realtors® (CAR) recently issued their initial 2024 market forecast: 

"California housing market will rebound in 2024"

CAR forecast: Existing, single-family home sales will increase in 2024 by approximately 23 percent, and the CA median home price is expected to climb by 6.2%. The average 30-year, fixed mortgage interest rate is projected to decline to 6%. Housing supply will remain below normal despite a 10% to 20% increase in active listings, as market conditions and the lending environment continue to improve. [However] the percentage of CA households able to purchase a median-priced single-family dwelling will remain very low by long-term standards. CAR Chief Economist, 9/20/23

Marin County House Price Appreciation Median House Sales Prices, 2015 - Present, by QuarterMarin County House Values Average Dollar per Square Foot Values, by QuarterMarin County: Median Home Price vs. Median Household Income.Approximate Percentage Changes since 1995*Marin County Condo Price Trend by Quarter.Median Condo Sales Prices since 2016Marin County Residential Market Market Dynamics by Price Segment/Property TypeSelected Comparative Statistics Greater Bay Area Counties & U.S. (In Alphabetical Order)Marin County Census SnapshotsMarin County Home Price Trends - Selected Major Markets.Median House Sales Prices, by Quarter, Q3 2020 - Q3 2023Marin County Home Price Trends - Selected Major Markets.Median House Sales Prices, by Quarter, Q3 2020 - Q3 2023Comparative Greater Bay Area HOUSE Prices Q3 2023 Median 3-Bedroom House Sales Prices, by County*Marin Luxury Home Market Homes Selling for $4,000,000+, 12 Months Sales*Buying a Large, Expensive House in the Bay Area 2023 YTD House Sales: 4+ Bedrooms, 4+ Baths, 4000+ Square Feet, $3 Million+*New Listings Coming on Market Marin County Market Dynamics & SeasonalityMarin County Homes Market Active & Coming-Soon Listings on 1st of Month*Active Listings on Market - Longer-Term Trends Marin County Market Dynamics & SeasonalityListings Pending Sale (in Contract, Offer Accepted) Marin County Market Dynamics & SeasonalityPrice Reductions on Active Listings Marin County Market Dynamics & SeasonalityAverage Days on Market: Speed of Sale Marin County: Market Dynamics & SeasonalityMarin County Luxury Home Sales by Month.Homes Selling for $4 Million+ since 2020Monthly Sales Volume Marin County Market Dynamics & SeasonalityMost Expensive Home Sales, 2023 YTD, Selected Bay Area Markets*Bay Area Luxury Market: Sales of $5 Million+.by Bay Area County, 2023 YTD Home Sales*Mortgage Interest Rates, Long-Term Trends since 1976 30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average ReadingsHealth Rankings for Bay Area Counties 2023 Rank Among 58 CA Counties*

Want to learn more about Bay Area market trends?

Let’s connect! With relationships and networks across the city, there are a variety of ways I can help you make informed real estate decisions. Call, email, or text – I’m here to help.