Marin: September 2024 Market Stats

Autumn Market Begins with Lowest Interest Rates Since Spring 2023

The August market was basically in a holding pattern, following typical seasonal trends, as the summer holidays drew to a close amid declining interest rates, indications of impending cuts in the Fed's benchmark rate, improving housing affordability, substantial financial market volatility, and a huge helping of presidential election news. The autumn selling season, just begun, typically sees significant market activity before the big mid-winter slowdown begins in late November, and some expect a very substantial rebound in demand due to interest rate declines.

"The time has come for policy to adjust...the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks...My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2 percent." -Jerome Powell, Chairman, Federal Reserve Bank, 8/23/24

"We forecast mortgage rates to gradually decline in the coming quarters and anticipate a significant surge in homebuying demand, mainly from the first-time homebuyers left at the margins. However, the tight inventory is still expected to limit home sales. We expect home sales to increase modestly the remainder of the year and home prices to rise 2.1% in 2024." -Freddie Mac Research (FHLMC), 8/22/24

"Consumers' short- and long-run economic outlook improved [in August], with both figures reaching their most favorable levels since April 2024 and a particularly sizable 10% improvement for long-run expectations that was seen across age and income groups." -University of Michigan, Survey of Consumers, 8/30/24

"Latest macroeconomic data suggests that the economy remains solid, with the cooling trend in inflation continuing at the start of Q3 2024. Both consumers and business leaders feel upbeat in general and have a positive outlook about the near future. With the Fed expected to adjust rates downward in their next few meetings, the housing market should pick up some momentum throughout the rest of the year. There are challenges...The ongoing insurance crisis, for example...has presented difficulties for homebuying and could remain a major headache for the market [over] the next couple of years." California Association of Realtors, 9/6/24

"Presidential elections have little impact on home sales...[ultimately] home purchases are usually life decisions rather than political ones." -John Burns Research & Consulting, 7/30/24

This report includes a deep dive into regional city & town values and characteristics along with a comprehensive review of general market indicators.