SF: January 2025 Market Stats

In 2024, San Francisco median house and condo sales prices increased year over year, though still running below the 2021-2022 pandemic-boom highs. The numbers of new listings and sales rose from 2023, but volumes remained well below long-term norms. Fueled by rising stock markets, luxury home sales outperformed the general market. Overbidding of the asking price increased, and, on average, listings sold a few days faster than last year. Details follow within this report.

Macroeconomically, there were quite a few ups and downs in 2024. The inflation rate dropped from 3.1% to 2.7%, a welcome decline, but not as large and consistent as hoped. In September, the Fed reduced its benchmark rate for the first time in 4 years, followed by 2 more cuts in November and December, but, confounding expectations, interest rates rose, ending the year higher than when it began. The Fed also released a tentative forecast of only 2 small rate reductions in 2025, but the Fed often alters its future "guidance" depending on economic developments. Despite significant volatility, stock markets saw very substantial appreciation in 2024, boosting household wealth, especially for the more affluent. Consumer confidence rose in the second half of the year to end 6% higher than a year earlier and seems poised to improve further.

Real estate markets are fiercely seasonal, and as usual, December was the slowest month for both new listings and listings going into contract. Activity typically rebounds early in the year and then accelerates rapidly into spring, which customarily sees the year's most heated market conditions. In the Bay Area, if the weather cooperates, the "spring" market often begins well before the official start of the season, but much depends on political/economic factors that are challenging to predict.

There seems to be something about starting a new year that renews optimism for the future and motivates people to move forward with life plans - that often include real estate.